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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd