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As global leaders convene in the Brazilian Amazon for Cop30, it is crucial to review how we are faring together in cutting global greenhouse gas emissions.

In spite of three decades of United Nations climate conferences, approximately half of the carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere after the dawn of industrialization has been emitted after the year 1990. Coincidentally, 1990 was the publication of the First Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which confirmed the threat of human-caused global warming. As scientists prepare the Seventh Assessment Report, they do so knowing that scientific findings remains overshadowed by political influences. Despite sincere attempts, the planet is still far from the path to prevent dangerous global warming.

Record-Breaking CO₂ Levels and Fossil Fuel Dependency

Recent data indicate that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached a record high of 423.9 parts per million in the year 2024, with the increase rate from 2023 to 2024 jumping by the biggest annual rise since record-keeping started in 1957. Based on the Global Carbon Project, ninety percent of total global CO₂ emissions in last year came from the combustion of carbon-based energy sources, while the remaining 10% was due to alterations in land use such as deforestation and forest fires.

Although the rise in carbon emissions from fuels in recent times was driven by higher use of gas and oil—accounting for over half of worldwide discharges—coal burning also reached a historic peak, constituting 41%. Despite the previous climate summit's evaluation urging nations to transition away from carbon fuels, collective plans still aim to extract over twice the quantity of hydrocarbons in 2030 than is consistent with keeping global warming to 1.5C, with ongoing drilling of natural gas justified as a less polluting bridge fuel.

The Mirage of Nature-Based Solutions

Instead of concentrating on economic incentives to speed up the elimination of fossil fuels, climate policies are heavily reliant on feel-good nature positive approaches that aim to neutralize CO2 output by planting trees instead of cutting industrial emissions. Although protecting, expanding, and rehabilitating ecological absorbers like woodlands and marshes is inherently good, studies has shown that there is not enough land to achieve the worldwide target of net zero emissions using ecological methods by themselves.

Approximately one billion hectares—a territory larger than the United States of America—is required to meet carbon neutrality commitments. Over 40% of this land would need to be converted from current applications like food production to carbon capture initiatives by 2060 at an unprecedented rate.

Although this regenerative utopia could be realized, forests require years to grow and can burn down, so they cannot be considered as a quick or permanent carbon storage solution, particularly in a fast-changing environment. As extreme heat and aridity affect more of the planet, these well-intentioned efforts could literally be destroyed by fire.

The Weakening of Natural Carbon Sinks

Scientific evidence tells us that about half of the carbon dioxide released each year stays in the air, while the remainder is taken up by oceans and terrestrial systems. As the planet warms, these environmental absorbers are becoming less effective at capturing CO₂, which means that additional CO2 accumulates in the air, further exacerbating global warming. Transferring the mitigation burden onto the agricultural and forest sectors effectively excuses the oil and gas sector from the urgency to reduce emissions in the near future.

The Carbon Debt and Coming Populations

Achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century requires carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which currently relies almost exclusively on terrestrial methods to absorb excess carbon from the air. Polluters can simply buy carbon credits to counterbalance their emissions and continue with business as usual. Meanwhile, the planetary heat imbalance resulting from the burning of fossil fuels keeps on further destabilise the global climate system. In effect, we are increasing our climate liability to our planetary credit card, passing on our descendants with an insurmountable burden.

To limit the magnitude and duration of exceeding the Paris Agreement temperature goals, the world ultimately needs to go well beyond the neutralising effect of carbon neutrality and begin to drawdown past carbon outputs to reach a carbon-negative state.

The Policy Misrepresentation of Net Zero

According to the most recent data from the Global Carbon Project, plant-based carbon removal is currently absorbing the equal of about five percent of yearly CO2 from fuels, while technology-based CDR represents only about one-millionth of the CO2 emitted from carbon sources. Optimistic industry estimates place it at around 0.1% of worldwide CO2 output. At the risk of sounding like a heretic, the policy twisting of carbon neutrality is an insidious loophole that distracts from the research-based necessity to eradicate the main source of our warming world—fossil fuels.

The Urgent Need for Definite Steps

Although this scientific reality should lead discussions at Cop30, past events indicates that polite incrementalism and political kowtowing will prevail. Vague statements of future ambition will keep on delay the urgent need for definite short-term measures. Unless leaders have the courage to put a price on carbon to terminate the age of hydrocarbons, we are adding more and more carbon to the atmosphere, worsening the environmental disaster currently happening across the globe.

The challenge we face is simple: take real action to the scientific reality of our predicament or suffer the consequences of this profound moral failure for generations ahead.