🔗 Share this article

Throughout the race for the White House in 2016, Viktor Orbán stood out as the sole European Union leader to support the Republican candidate. This backing came as no shock, considering the Hungarian leader's adoption of divisive theories like the "great replacement" theory and his suppression of media freedom. Analysts point out that Hungary's premier essentially pioneered the Make America Great Again campaign, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as Trump's forerunner.

Political Favors In advance of Hungary's Polls

Recently, amid pivotal polls in Hungary just six months away, Donald Trump offered electoral assistance. With Orbán pursues a fifth straight win presiding over a country he calls an illiberal democracy, his Fidesz party currently trails in opinion polls. A visit to the US capital resulted in not just Trump campaign souvenirs; it obtained considerably more valuable electoral advantages.

Energy Exemptions and Fiscal Safeguards

Despite earlier instructing EU countries on the imperative to eliminate all energy imports from the Russian Federation, and threatening sanctions against nations continuing to buy Russian oil, the US president agreed to provide a particular exclusion for Hungary – the biggest user in the EU of Russian oil. According to Mr Orbán, the US government also agreed to extend a “financial shield” to the Hungarian authorities if it runs into any future difficulties, given that Brussels continues to withhold billions in EU funding to Hungary because of violations of legal standards.

The particulars of this arrangement seem vague. However the US president recently demonstrated his readiness to support like-minded partners as the America granted a $20bn emergency credit line to Javier Milei, Argentina's president. Although Orbán failed to obtain a Trump trip to Budapest to Budapest, the Oval Office meeting nevertheless was a profitable day’s work.

EU Concerns and International Implications

Among European leaders, the US president's move will have highlighted the geopolitical stakes of the upcoming vote, before which the centrist challenger, Péter Magyar, holds a clear edge in the polls. European leaders have learned not to anticipate principled consistency from the Trump White House, and have grown used to the American leader's attempts to undermine the EU. Yet the special treatment for Orbán – secured through an agreement to buy American natural gas and nuclear power – blatantly weakens EU aspirations to eliminate Russian oil and gas by 2027.

• Since 2022, the top importers in the EU of Russian crude, these two countries, have contributed more than ten billion pounds to the Russian military campaign.
• Meanwhile, Budapest has often employed the veto power to stymie progress in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• While Europe works to create a coordinated approach for supporting Kyiv, and bolstering its position in any later diplomatic discussions, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the negotiating table continues to be a major hurdle.

Challenger's Position

The opposition candidate has refrained from promising a major policy shift on Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on internal matters, while stressing the importance for Hungary to begin operating as a productive EU partner. Following repeated disruptions, EU officials can only remain patient. Orbán's disregard to basic EU values, like the support for minority protections and the independence of civil society institutions, has remained a humiliating embarrassment for the EU. His persistent opposition regarding Ukraine risks undermining its long-term safety.